Task 2 concerns the identification and assessment of the agricultural risk in terms of crop yield losses, focusing on the most relevant rainfed winter cereals, over the more exposed and vulnerable regions of the IP. Within the framework of agricultural risk analysis, this task will focus on the 3 components of risk assessment for the development of the ARM: hazard, exposure and vulnerability.

Hazard identification will focus on the assessment of the HDE with major impacts on crop losses in the IP. Drought indicators, such as SPI and SPEI will be used to quantify the severity of the hazard and their probable impact on a specific crop. Exposure assessment will identify the more susceptible areas to the HDE. Land cover change, land degradation trends, vegetation response to drought will be assessed by means of vegetation indices, such as NDVI or EVI. Aridity classification, dryness trends and groundwater distribution will also be used. Finally, the vulnerability assessment will consist on the identification of the propensity of the exposed crop to suffer yield losses resulting from the occurrence of the HDE. Several factors will be used, namely fraction of agricultural land and agricultural irrigated land, population and soil characteristics.

The ARM will be developed through different combinations of referred factors and historical crop production/yield through a linear or ANN approach. The information derived will contribute to crop risk analysis and assist final users and insurance companies with some guidance on decision making process towards sustainable agricultural practices.