Task 3 will follow a rationale close to the one for Task 2, focusing on the 3 components of risk assessment: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The aim is now to analyse the forest risk related to wood losses resulting from extreme and prolonged droughts and forest fires over the more exposed and vulnerable regions of the IP.

Hazard identification will focus on the assessment of the HDE with major impacts on wood losses in the IP. SPI and SPEI will be used to quantify the severity of the hazard impact on forest ecosystems. Wildfires are also viewed as a potential hazard. The interactive maps of Indices and Fire Hazard (http://idlcc.fc.ul.pt/MDMF/index.php?&l=eng) produced at IDL in the framework of LSA-SAF in a closed collaboration with NAVIGATOR and ICNF, will also be used. Exposure assessment will identify the more susceptible areas to the HDE. Land cover change, land degradation trends and vegetation response to HDE will be assessed by means of vegetation indices. Aridity classification, dryness trends and groundwater distribution will also be used. Finally, the vulnerability assessment will consist on the identification of the propensity of the exposed forest to suffer wood losses resulting from the occurrence of the HDE.

The FRM will be developed through different combinations of above referred factors and historical wood losses through the application of a linear or ANN approaches. The information derived from the FRM will contribute to forest risk management and assist end-users and insurance companies with some guidance on decision making process towards sustainable forest management and to allow for timely forest insurance strategies.